1.0 Problems, problems, problems |
This book will provide an outline of the solution to three of the greatest problems facing the world today. This chapter will describe the three problems we will tackle. They are: 1. The worldwide need for alternate sources of energy 2. The worldwide food shortage 3. The need for jobs to keep our people working 1.1 The power/energy problem Nearly everyone has heard of the world energy shortage, but
few are truly aware of the seriousness of the situation. At the
present time, the world has only five significant sources of energy
and they are: petroleum, coal, gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric
power. All of the other renewable resources such as wind, solar,
geothermal, biomass, tides, waves, and so on together account for
only a tiny fraction of world energy. Why? The simple answer up
to now has been that the renewable resources could not compete
economically with the first five. And so it will probably be in
the future as well. But how many people realize how short a time
it will be before the price of oil will rise so much that the
renewable resources will become economically competitive?
Let us take a look at the world energy production situation.
Table 1.1-1 shows the world energy production in 1989. The data have
been converted so that instead of presenting the data in terms
of millions of tons of oil equivalent or trillions of BTUs that it
is shown in terms of percentage of total production. One can easily
see from this table the regional dependence on the various forms
of energy. One can see how important nuclear power is in western
Europe. France produces about 75% of their electricity from nuclear
power plants.
* Table 1.1-1 World Energy Production in 1989 (in %)
Region oil liquid dry coal hydro nuclear
gas gas
North America 28.9 3.8 25.8 27.0 6.9 7.6
Central & South America 57.6 1.8 13.6 4.1 22.4 0.5
Western Europe 22.6 1.1 19.6 23.8 13.1 19.8
Eastern Europe & CIS 29.4 1.3 33.3 29.3 3.0 3.5
Middle East 87.4 3.1 9.2 0.1 0.3 0.0
Africa 62.1 1.8 11.9 21.4 2.3 0.5
Far East & Oceania 24.0 0.5 9.3 54.3 7.1 4.8
Source: International Energy Annual 1989, US Dept of Energy, 1991.
as cited in The Universal Almanac 1992, p.331.
.
Now let us look at the world energy consumption situation. Table 1.1-2 shows the world energy consumption in 1989. Again the data have been converted so that they are presented in terms of percent of total consumption. This table shows far more convincingly the terrible dependence of the world upon oil. Only in eastern Europe, the CIS , and China where there are comparitively few automobiles do we see a lesser degree of dependence upon oil. What will we use to run our cars, trucks, buses, and airplanes when the oil is gone? Liquid hydrogen perhaps, but it has a lot of problems. The interested reader might read R.O. Price's article in Aerospace Engineering of February 1991 [102, p.21-5]. * Table 1.1-2 World Energy Consumption in 1989 (in %)
Region oil dry coal hydro nuclear
gas
North America 42.6 23.3 21.1 6.1 6.8
Central & South America 54.3 15.4 4.6 25.2 0.5
Western Europe 44.2 16.1 19.5 8.0 12.1
Eastern Europe & CIS 28.1 34.0 30.9 3.2 3.8
Middle East 63.2 34.5 1.3 1.0 0.0
Africa 42.8 14.4 36.9 4.7 1.1
Far East & Oceania 38.0 7.5 45.2 5.6 3.8
Source: International Energy Annual 1989, US Dept of Energy, 1991.
as cited in The Universal Almanac 1992, p.331.
.
1.1.1 Oil, the critical resource Oil is the most important of the five major energy resources
because it alone is capable of running the world's transportation
industries. Coal was used to run trains for a few decades but
steam powered trains were discontinued due to a number of good
reasons, among them being the pollution they produced in the
form of clouds of smoke and the fire hazard they constituted due
to the burning embers emitted from their smokestacks. Natural gas
does have the potential for running the transportation industry
although the transition would be difficult and expensive. But in
the end this effort would be futile because the natural gas will
run out too and then the vehicles will have to be converted to
electric power.
Electric cars will begin to replace gasoline powered
cars as the price of oil rises and the oil reserves fall. Here
again the transition will be slow and expensive. In 1988 there were
about 413 million cars and 127 million trucks and buses for a total
of about 540 million vehicles worldwide not counting motorcycles or
airplanes [85, p.286]. In the United States alone in 1989 there
were about 143 million cars and 44 million trucks and buses for a
total of about 187 million vehicles again not counting motorcycles
or airplanes [85, p.285]. The world production of motor vehicles
was about 49 million in 1989 [85, p.286] and has been climbing
steadily at about 1 million additional vehicles per year for the
last 10 to 15 years [85, p.285].
If the world began to convert to electrically powered cars
today, the transition would take at least 25 years [WAG], but
that would not solve the problem. That would merely shift the
energy drain from oil via electricity to coal, natural gas or
nuclear power. The inescapable conclusion is that 100 years
from now it is likely that only airplanes will still be using
oil for fuel. The other vehicles will be forced to switch to
electricity for power. This switchover will dramatically increase
the pressure on electric power companies to increase production.
Perhaps our roads could be regraded so that they all run down
hill.
How long will the oil supplies last? Table 1.1.1-1 will give
us a idea. The second column gives the (estimated)
proven reserves of the major oil producers throughout the world
in billions of barrels. The third column gives the
estimated 1989 production by producer in millions of barrels
per year. The fourth column gives the number of years that each
producing country could continue to produce oil at the 1989 rate
assuming no change in the production rate. You notice that
Kurwait could last for 233.9 years whereas the United States
will exhaust its known supplies in about 9.1 years. The fifth
column is more disturbing. It shows how long the world's reserves
will last under the assumption that surviving producers will
make up for those producers who exhaust their reserves. It also
assumes no increase in production above 1989 levels. This implies
that either there is a decline in the per capita usage of oil
worldwide from now on or that we increase our efficiency steadily
each year at least 2% per year to make up for the increase in
population worldwide and for any increase in per capita consumption
in underdeveloped areas. The reader will notice that the world's
reserves will be exhausted in 46.6 years under this scenario.
Many people will not live for another 46.6 years, but wait, the
problem may be worse yet.
The last column shows how long the world's reserves will last
assuming that production is increased by 2% per year to account
for the natural human desire to increase one's standard of living.
This scenario assumes that increases in efficiency make up for
the yearly 2% increase in the world's population. Notice that
this very modest increase in production will cause the oil reserves
to be exhausted about 13 years faster - in about 33.8 years.
That is shocking. All the world's known reserves will be gone in
only 33.8 years - i.e. by the year 2025 the barrel will be dry.
* Table 1.1.1-1 World Oil Supplies, Rate of Exhaustion
Res Prod Yrs Yrs Yrs
Country BB MB/YR 0% 0%-all 2%-all
Algeria 9.2 225 40.9 23.9 19.9
Argentina 2.2 166 13.6 12.7 11.5
Australia 2.2 197 11.4 11.1 10.1
Bahrain 0.1 16 6.2 6.2 6.1
Bolivia 0.2 7 28.6 19.7 17.0
Brazil 2.8 203 13.8 12.9 11.7
Brunei 1.3 53 24.5 18.2 15.8
Cameroon 0.4 66 6.8 6.8 6.6
Canada 6.4 575 11.2 10.9 10.0
China 22.7 1018 22.3 17.2 15.1
CIS 58.1 4526 12.8 12.2 11.1
Columbia 2.0 153 13.4 12.6 11.4
Denmark 0.6 39 16.7 14.5 13.0
Ecuador 1.4 106 13.7 12.8 11.6
Egypt 4.4 316 13.9 13.0 11.8
Germany 0.3 28 10.7 10.5 9.7
India 5.9 234 25.2 18.4 16.1
Indonesia 10.1 438 23.1 17.5 15.3
Iran 77.7 1070 72.6 33.0 25.9
Iraq* 100.0 977 102.4 38.9 29.5
Italy 0.7 21 33.3 21.4 18.2
Kurwait* 97.7 418 233.9 46.6 33.8
Libya 22.8 383 59.5 29.6 23.8
Maylaysia 3.3 205 16.1 14.2 12.8
Mexico 54.2 959 56.5 28.8 23.2
Netherlands 0.2 26 7.7 7.7 7.3
New Zealand 0.1 10 15.0 13.6 12.3
Nigeria 16.3 502 32.6 21.1 18.0
North Yemen 2.0 70 28.6 19.7 17.0
Norway 11.3 491 22.9 17.5 15.3
Oman 4.3 230 18.7 15.5 13.8
Pakistan 0.2 16 12.5 11.9 10.9
Peru 0.2 52 3.8 3.8 3.8
Qatar 3.5 155 22.9 17.5 15.3
Saudi Arabia* 260.0 1700 153.0 44.9 32.9
Syria 3.0 91 33.0 21.2 18.1
Thailand 0.2 13 19.2 15.7 14.0
Trinidad Tobago 0.5 57 9.6 9.5 8.9
Tunisia 1.8 38 47.4 25.9 21.3
UAE 76.9 584 131.7 42.7 31.7
United Kingdom 4.0 666 6.1 6.1 5.9
United States 26.5 2897 9.1 9.1 8.5
Venezuela 59.5 597 99.7 38.4 29.2
Other 9.9 684 14.5 13.3 12.1 World 967.9 21278 233.9 46.6 33.8 Column Notes:
1 * - Assumes pre-Gulf War production levels
2 Oil reserves as of Jan. 1, 1990 in billions of barrels
3 Oil production for 1989 in millions of barrels per year
4 Years to exhaustion at current rate of production with
production declining with loss of each producer
5 Years to exhaustion at current rate of production with
remaining producers making up for lost ones.
6 Years to exhaustion at 2% increase in production each year
with remaining producers making up for lost ones.
Column Sources:
2 World Oil and Oil and Gas Journal
as cited in The World Almanac 1992, p.192.
3 1990 Information Please Almanac, p.379.
4,5,6 Author's calculations
.
1.1.2 Oil, other supplies? The oil reserves shown above refer only to the currently known oil reserves. Therefore we may also look forward to many other oil fields which will be found in the future. In addition, it is well known that a major portion of any oil in an underground field cannot be recovered with current recovery methods. This means that in the future we may develop improved recovery methods which will allow us to recover significant amounts of this "lost" oil. One estimate of future oil discoveries and the potential of advanced recovery methods, that of Richard Nehring, suggests that the former will account for 263 to 555 billion barrels of oil and the latter will account for 420 to 730 billion barrels of oil [91, p.13]. This gives a combined total additional oil supply of 689 to 1288 billion barrels. Notice that these amounts nicely straddle the current known reserves - so for the purpose of illustration let us look at the situation in which these additional supplies equal the current supplies. In that case, the total of all oil ever recovered would be just twice what is given above. What would that do to my projections? Well, that is the beauty of computers. It is trivial to run the program again with twice the reserves. Of course, since the fourth and fifth columns call for no increase in production, the results are simply doubled. That is, the number of years to exhaustion would be doubled which would give the world a total of 93.2 years supply at the current rate of consumption. The situation is not quite so rosy for the final scenario in which production is projected to rise by 2% per year. In that case, the total world's oil supply would be used up in 54 years instead of 33.8 years. In other words, doubling the reserves only gets us an additional 20 years. The politicians who cannot see beyond the next election will simply think that the problem has been postponed for a whole generation and they need not worry about it. 1.1.3 Natural gas The situation with respect to natural gas is no better. The total estimated proven reserves of natural gas are about 4000 trillion cubic feet [86, p.192]. The world's production and consumption of natural gas are about 72 trillion cubic feet per year [85, p.331]. That means that natural gas will last about 56 years at the current rate of consumption - which is about 10 years longer than the oil will last. It is impossible for natural gas to replace oil because there simply isn't enough of it. Oil constitutes about 40% of world energy production whereas natural gas constitutes only about 21% of world energy production [85 p.331]. Thus the gas would run out in less than half the time if it were to be used instead of oil. 1.1.4 Coal Coal has a bright, perhaps very bright future. The world seems
to have quite a lot of coal. And the United States is lucky to
have huge reserves estimated to be on the order of 640 billion
tons [92, p.58]. With production currently at about 1 billion
tons per year [86, p.193], this might last 640 years, but production
is increasing and as oil supplies are used up, coal will probably
take its place. This will not be without its problems - especially
its environmental impact. Remember that for every billion tons
of coal that is burned, roughly 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide
will be exhausted into the atmosphere. Considering that the earth's
atmosphere contains about 3000 billion tons of carbon dioxide,
that means that we would increase the carbon
dioxide content of the atmosphere by 0.1% per year. This will be
ignored by all except the environmentalists, unless the greenhouse
effect causes the earth's temperature to rise noticeably and the
state of Florida begins to disappear into the ocean. Of course
the greenhouse effect may be perversely counterbalanced or
overbalanced by the change in the earth's albedo due to
desertification of the land which is in turn due to man's
destruction of the forests of Africa and South America. Oops, I
better get off my soapbox and back to the subject.
In order for coal to replace oil and natural gas, production
must be increased dramatically. Coal currently constitutes
about 27% of world energy production as compared to 21% for
natural gas and 40% for oil [85, p.331]. Thus production would
have to more than triple just to match current energy production
levels. That would increase the carbon dioxide content of the
atmosphere by 0.3% per year. Over the last 25 years, US coal
production has increased by about 3% per year [86, p.193]. Given
a constant increase in production of 3% per year the United States
coal reserves will last for about 218 years. Nothing to worry
about - right? By the way, 3% per year expansion would be sufficient
to triple production in less than 50 years or by the time the
oil runs out.
1.1.5 Hydroelectric power The future of hydroelectric power appears to be rather unexciting. Since it is a renewable resource, it will hopefully never go away. But, there is little room for expansion. In the developed countries, there are few sites where new capacity could be constructed. There are significant opportunities for new hydroelectric power plants in underdeveloped countries, but ultimately this resource cannot supply the needed energy - as has been shown by the experience of the developed countries. 1.1.6 Nuclear power World use of nuclear power has increased dramatically over
the last 20 years. As can be seen from table 1.1-1, nuclear
power constitutes over 12% of all energy consumption in western
Europe and nearly 7% in North America. In terms of electric
power it is even more prominent - amounting to 75% of French
electricity, 60% of Belgium's power, 50% in South Korea, 27%
in Japan, and 20% in the United States [86, p.196].
Nuclear power can be achieved in either of two ways - by
nuclear fission as in the atomic bomb or by nuclear fusion as
in the Sun or in a hydrogen bomb. All of today's nuclear reactors
around the world operate by nuclear fission. Thus they produce
extremely poisonous and radioactive products. These nasty
byproducts are the reason for the anti-nuclear movement around
the world.
For many years there have been expensive research programs around
the world which have sought to produce electric power through
nuclear fusion. Billions of dollars have been spent on these
programs and they are close to their holy grail. Recently
(November 1991) a British team of physicists finally achieved
controlled nuclear fusion with a deuterium and tritium reaction.
Of course it was only for a short period (about 1 second), but
this result shows that fusion powered reactors may only be a few
more years into the future.
The tremendous advantage of fusion powered reactors is that
they produce clean power. That is, there are no poisonous
radioactive products to endanger the public or to be disposed of.
1.1.7 The United States energy situation Let us take a look at the energy situation in the United States. Table 1.1.7-1 gives a breakdown of the energy production in the United States from 1960 through 1990 by energy source. It is shown in terms of percentage of total energy resources. One can discern the growing importance of coal and nuclear power and the ebbing of the importance of oil. In light of the future oil situation, this must be considered good for the United States. * Table 1.1.7-1 United States Energy Production (in %)
Year oil liquid dry coal hydro nuclear
gas gas
1960 36.0 3.5 30.5 26.1 3.9 0.0
1965 33.5 3.8 32.0 26.5 4.2 0.1
1970 32.9 4.0 34.9 23.5 4.2 0.4
1975 29.7 4.0 32.9 25.1 5.3 3.2
1980 28.2 3.5 30.8 28.8 4.5 4.2
1985 29.4 3.5 26.2 29.9 4.6 6.4
1990 22.9 3.2 26.8 33.6 4.3 9.2
Source: Annual Energy Review 1990, Energy Information Admin.
as cited in The World Almanac 1992, p. 192.
.
Next we show the energy consumption in the United States
over the past 30 years. Table 1.1.7-2 shows the US energy
consumption in terms of percentage of total energy resources.
Here one can see a slight slippage in the percentages of oil
and gas and slight increases in the percentages of coal and
nuclear. Again these developments must be considered good, but
it is clear that our dependence on oil is still disastrously high.
Of course transportation uses a major portion of that oil - 33%
[92, p.198].
* Table 1.1.7-2 United States Energy Consumption (in %)
Year oil dry coal hydro nuclear
gas
1960 45.5 28.3 22.5 3.8 0.0
1965 44.1 29.9 22.0 3.9 0.1
1970 44.4 32.8 18.4 4.0 0.4
1975 46.5 28.3 18.0 4.6 2.7
1980 45.1 26.9 20.3 4.1 3.6
1985 41.9 24.2 23.7 4.6 5.6
1990 41.4 23.9 23.5 3.6 7.6
Source: Annual Energy Review 1990, Energy Information Admin.
as cited in The World Almanac 1992, p. 192.
.
Finally we show the breakdown of United States electricity
generation by percentage produced from each resource. Table
1.1.7-3 shows these data for 1980 through 1990. Here, to our
great relief, we see that the dependence on oil is low and that
the dependence on coal is over 55%. Also note that nuclear
power provides over 20% of US electricity. This is far less
than the 75% in France or 60% in Belgium, but it is nevertheless
significant. The "other" column in this table includes such
sources as solar, geothermal, biomass, tides, waves, etc. One
can see that they are almost insignificant at the present time.
* Table 1.1.7-3 United States Electricity Generation (in %) Year oil gas coal hydro nuclear other 1980 10.8 15.1 50.8 12.1 11.0 0.3 1981 9.0 15.1 52.4 11.4 11.9 0.3 1982 6.6 13.6 53.2 13.8 12.6 0.2 1983 6.2 11.9 54.5 14.4 12.7 0.3 1984 5.0 12.3 55.5 13.3 13.6 0.4 1985 4.0 11.8 56.8 11.4 15.5 0.4 1986 5.5 10.0 55.7 11.7 16.6 0.5 1987 4.6 10.6 56.9 9.7 17.7 0.5 1988 5.5 9.4 57.0 8.2 19.5 0.4 1989 5.7 9.6 55.8 9.5 19.0 0.4 1990 4.2 9.4 55.5 10.0 20.6 0.4 Source: Annual Energy Review 1990, Energy Information Admin.
as cited in The World Almanac 1992, p. 195.
.
The US had about 112 nuclear power reactors in operation
as of the begining of 1991 [86, p.196]. In spite of the vitriolic
opposition of thoughtless anti-nuclear groups, 18 nuclear reactors
have commenced operation since 1985 [86, p.196] and construction
permits have been issued for 9 more [86, p.196]. Since 1985 the
percentage of US electricity generated by nuclear power has
increased from 15.5% to 20.6%. From 1980 to 1990, US power
generation has increased from 2286 billion kilowatt hours to
2805 billion kilowatt hours [86, p.195] or about 2% per year.
This would not have been accomplished without nuclear power.
Notwithstanding their success over the last few years, we
do not expect that many more fission type reactors will be
built in the United States. Instead we expect a renaissance
in nuclear power based upon fusion power and specifically upon
Helium-3.
1.1.8 Summary of the energy situation 1. All current oil reserves will be exhausted in less
than 50 years at current production levels - and natural gas
soon thereafter.
2. All current oil reserves will be exhausted in about 35
years if production increases by a mere 2% annually - which is
less than in recent years.
3. New discoveries and improved oil recovery techniques
can only postpone the inevitable by 20 years.
4. The development of nuclear fusion should be accelerated
so that we will not be forced to build more nuclear fission
power plants.
5. Nuclear fusion power, and various renewable resources but
not coal, must be utilized to replace oil.
6. Cars, trucks, buses, and trains must be converted to
run on electricity instead of oil because the remaining oil
must be saved for airplanes which cannot be converted to
electric power.
7. Reduction in the use of coal and oil brought about by the
introduction and use of nuclear fusion will address the problem of
global warming.
1.2 The worldwide food shortage The problems of starvation and malnutrition around the world are so well known and so obvious that no argument will be presented here. Ultimately the real problem is over population. The following table shows the population of the world from 1980, projected out to 2005. * Table 1.2-1 World population projections (in millions) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 World total 4451 4839 5247 5676 6123 6589 Asia 2584 2819 3065 3320 3585 3856
South 1408 1569 1742 1925 2120 2325
Southern 949 1056 1170 1292 1420 1554
SE 361 400 441 485 531 579
W 98 113 130 148 169 192
East 1176 1250 1323 1395 1464 1531
China 996 1060 1123 1185 1246 1303
Japan 117 121 125 128 130 132
Others 63 69 75 82 88 95
America 614 669 727 787 850 916
North 252 264 275 286 296 305
Latin 362 405 451 501 555 611
South 240 268 298 330 364 400
Central 92 105 119 135 152 171
Caribbean 30 32 34 36 38 40
Africa 480 555 639 734 839 956
Western 144 169 198 230 267 308
Eastern 143 166 192 221 254 290
Northern 108 123 140 158 177 199
Middle 52 60 69 79 90 102
Southern 33 37 41 46 51 56
Europe 485 492 497 500 500 499
Western 154 154 153 152 150 147
Southern 140 143 145 147 148 149
Eastern 109 112 115 117 118 119
Northern 82 83 84 84 84 83
CIS/USSR 265 279 292 305 317 328 Oceania 23 25 27 29 32 35
Aus. & NZ 18 19 20 21 22 23
Others 5 6 7 9 10 12
Source: United Nations data for 1980 & 1985. . Of all the regions of the world, only Europe has a handle on their population problem. It now takes only 10 to 12 years to create another billion human beings. The frightening numbers are: * 5 billion people 1986 - 1987
6 billion people 1997 - 1998
7 billion people 2008 - 2009
8 billion people 2019 - 2020
.
1.3 The problem of unemployment
Jobs are perhaps the most important part of a civilized
society. Jobs allow people to make useful contributions to
society and to receive some reward for their efforts. Normally
this reward is simply payment of wages in the form of money
which can then be used to buy other goods and services which
have been produced by the labor of others.
Over the past few decades, jobs in manufacturing and agriculture
have been steadily eliminated through the use of bigger, faster
or better machines. In all the advanced countries we see a switch
to service jobs and this trend is certain to continue in the future.
Robots of the future may be so capable that they will be able
to eliminate nearly all of the remaining manufacturing jobs.
In the future we will have to find jobs not only for the millions
of children growing up but also for the millions of people who will
be displaced from their manufacturing jobs. How will this be done?
The creation of entirely new industries will provide those
new jobs. In this book we promote four industries: fusion power,
hydroponics, robotics, and space. These four industries can solve
the problems we face. The remainder of this book will detail our
plan to accomplish this task.
|